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Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2014 00:00:00 until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future Start Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC) : Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC) ::: HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors. “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC) :::: Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven']][[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|'09876']] 20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC) Here are my Atlantic basin predictions: 8''' tropical depressions, '''7 named storms, 3''' hurricanes, '''1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 'hurricanes, and '''0-2 '''major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season. Steve820 21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : 9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops 3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC) Not sure this is bad or not.--Isaac829 23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC) :They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC) :I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC) The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :) Steve820 20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :15 more days! Steve820 20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling. :Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC) ::As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does '''not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. AndrewTalk To Me 18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something. Steve820 21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::4 days left... Steve820 23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC) :::3 more days! Steve820 00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::2 days left!! :D Steve820 22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area :::leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1''' major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang! Steve820 03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC) The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is now open!--Isaac829 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC) Re-analysis Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. ''Ryan1000'' 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC) :Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. ''Ryan1000'' 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC) November Well, it's that time of the year already. The Atlantic has pretty much wrapped up. So far, we have had '''8 named storms, 6''' hurricanes, '''2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of ~'65' units. This is 67% of the long-term average, per the NHC Atlantic October summary. I doubt we will get another TC in the Atlantic. But if we do, it will be rather unexpected for me. AndrewTalk To Me 21:16, November 1, 2014 (UTC) AOI: North of Hispaniola AOI: North of Hispaniola The latest NHC TWO has noted the potential for a tropical wave to develop north of Hispaniola later this week. It could become subtropical, but I don't a re-Hanna. Chances of formation are near 0% for the next two days and 20% for the next five. AndrewTalk To Me 00:02, November 3, 2014 (UTC) : Down to 0/10. I don't see it become much but it might briefly be a fail subtropical Iselle system.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:53, November 4, 2014 (UTC) :: The system's causing quite a lot of flooding over Puerto Rico and nearly islands and it's now 20/20 on the GTWO. I think we won't see this be much, but there's still that slight shot of it becoming a Subtropical Storm Iselle before conditions become hostile and the AOI is destroyed by a frontal system, --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:50, November 5, 2014 (UTC) ::: Steve, you mean Isaias right? xD Anyway this might become Subtropical Storm Isaias, and I would really like to see the name be used this year. Simlover123 04:15, November 5, 2014 (UTC) :::: Yeah, sorry, I kind of got mixed up with the names. :P Anyways, this could still have a slight shot at becoming Isaias, though I'm starting to doubt that since it has only a little bit of time left to become something. Still 20/20 BTW. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 04:46, November 6, 2014 (UTC) :::: It dropped off the TWO without even becoming anything. Oh well! I still hope we get a late-season Isaias. :)--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:53, November 7, 2014 (UTC) :::: ISELLE? Only if Isaias submerged the Islands with JULIOsephine XD rarity is best pony 03:16, November 9, 2014 (UTC) ::::: Heh Liz, sorry, I just mixed up the names a bit. XD --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:15, November 9, 2014 (UTC) December In case a post-season storm happens... Ryan1000 10:59, December 1, 2014 (UTC) Farewell So since this season is about closing up, I think it's about time we start this section. Unless we get a shocking very late or post-season surprise, we saw a total of 9''' depressions, '''8 named storms, 6''' hurricanes and '''2 majors. I thought this season was completely incredible because of the amount of systems that became hurricanes this year. This season is MUCH better than last year's shitty season, that's for sure! All last year produced was fails, fails, fails everywhere, and just a couple minimal hurricanes. This year was much better. Good job Atlantic for not disappointing us this time! Now we'll wait to see what 2015's Atlantic season will look like... --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 01:13, November 14, 2014 (UTC) :Well, we have just a week left for the AHS. Steve, I do agree with you on many points. The NHC accurately predicted a lot of the storm totals in their August forecasts, and despite strong shear and vertical instability, we still got plenty of decent storms and some US impacts from Arthur. Our ACE total of ~'64' units is definitely more than last years, which you forgot to mention. For me, Gonzalo will be the most memorable storm; it became the strongest ATL hurricane in over four years and caused quite a scare in Bermuda. 2014 also was a year of innovation for the NHC, as they used updated forecast models to accurately predict Arthur's landfall and were able to send unmanned missions to sample data from Edouard. Pretty epic, don't you think? I hope we can see much more in 2015... AndrewTalk To Me 00:21, November 28, 2014 (UTC) ::While this season wasn't active it surely wasn't boring. With storms like Arthur, Edouard, Gonzalo and Hanna. Although the EPAC was far more active. I will remember the ATL season for years to come. Also, I think the Atlantic was trying to be active, but El Nino and other environmental factors kept this season from being active. Hopefully 2015 will be active. Because 2013 was just bleh.... and 2014 was affected by El Nino and shear. leeboy100My Talk! 03:29, December 6, 2014 (UTC) :::Leeboy, no El Niño was present this year, and vertical instability was just as great of a problem as shear (which makes the EPAC activity even more remarkable). AndrewTalk To Me 20:49, December 25, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Even though we only have 2 named storms so far, we're already in August and I think it's about time we start this section with my retirement predictions: *Arthur: 5% - Early-season east coast hurricane but it barely caused much impacts. Because of this the name is likely to stay. *Bertha: 3% - Very impressive in that it strengthened to a hurricane even though it was so disorganized, but I doubt many impacts occurred in Lesser Antilles and retirement is very unlikely. *Cristobal: 5% - 7 fatalities could give it a tiny shot at retirement but I really don't think that would happen. Most likely he's coming back in 2020 *Dolly: 1% - 1 death in Mexico, but you know their retirement standards, it almost certainly won't be retired. *Edouard: 1% - First major since Sandy in 2012 but because of not affecting land, the name will pop back up in 2020. But, it's 1% because it caused 2 deaths :( *Fay: 1% - Some impacts in the little island of Bermuda but it wasn't too bad, and it also didn't Fayl like we all wanted to use in case this name failed. *Gonzalo: 30% - Might have a slight shot due to impacts in the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. Not as severe as it would've been though, Bermuda got less damage than Fabian (2003) and the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda wasn't hit so badly either. If this is the final storm this year, it'll be the only one with a shot of retirement. If this won't be retired, it'll be the first year since 2009 to not have any Atlantic retirements. *Hanna: 5% - Slight effects in Central America and also took an unusual track, but retirement is about out of the question. (Last updated by --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • at 17:38, November 2, 2014 (UTC)) : Still seems a bit early in ATL for retirements...if we get something a little more notable, then I'll begin mine, but there's not much to say right now. Ryan1000 02:48, August 7, 2014 (UTC) Normally I'm against doing these with a season that's only two storms in, but I'm bored right now and this year's AHS has been moving at a snail's pace, so I'll post my predictions to pass the time :P *Arthur: 9% - Made for a boisterous start to the season, but fortunately wasn't too severe. *Bertha: 6% - Wasn't bad enough, though meteorologically interesting. *Cristobal: 7% - Some fatalities during its early stages, but nothing that will merit retirement. *Dolly: 2% - Even Barry was worse. *Edouard: 0% 1% - It was nice to see a major roam the Atlantic for a change, but the only impacts were felt by fish, so no. :*''Sigh...'' bumping to 1%, unfortunately Edouard killed 2 people in Maryland due to rip currents :( *Fay: 3% - Hit Bermuda a bit harder than expected, but they came out of it unscathed. *Gonzalo: 37% (preliminary) - Made its mark across several areas but this was no Fabian for Bermuda, nor was it a Luis (among others) for the Leewards, nor was it an Igor for Newfoundland. We got very lucky from Gonzalo. Assuming we don't get any surprises for the remainder of the season (it's October 19 as I type this), then if any name gets retired after this year, it'll likely be Gonzalo, but I wouldn't count on it. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:18, August 18, 2014 (UTC) Oki doki Loki! *Arthur = 10% That aardvark was too nice. Next! *Bertha = 10% Only Alex Salmond would think that storm demolished everywhere. *Cristobal = 6% u wot m8 *Dolly = ?% Let's see what JOLENE is up to... *Ed/Edd/Eddy/Whatever we shall call him = 0% Lol, aspirations get you SOMEWHERE... *Fay = 1% Not a fayl though! *Gonzalo = omg% omg. omg. just gonzalomg. “i liek turtlez 14:49, August 24, 2014 (UTC) Leeboy's epic retirement prediction (ATL) *Arthur-10% caused $13.9 million and 1 death, so it's staying *Bertha-1% caused 3 deaths *Christobal-killed 2 people due to rip currents *Dolly-0% 1 death but since it was in Mexico it's not going anywhere *Edouard-0% major that didn't affect land 2% Never mind, this beautiful hurricane caused two deaths :( *Fay-1% Well, it soaked Bermuda. *Gonzalo-30% With the damage it caused and 3 deaths in the UK it has a chance *Hanna -1% Well, I missed a really weird storm (stupid internet) but fortunately it didn't do much leeboy100My Talk! 03:36, December 6, 2014 (UTC) Well, I'm here, but as for actual retirement predictions thus far...I'm at a loss. Nothing is honestly worth retiring, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first year since 2009 to feature no retired names in ATL. If I had to explain storm by storm... *Arthur - 10% - I didn't expect Arthur to be particularly destructive, but 14 million in damage and 1 death are surprisingly low numbers, especially for a cat 2 landfall. It seems NC has gotten a lot more prepared for hurricanes since the monsters that have hit them over the past two decades (Fran, Floyd, Isabel). 9% for the minor impacts, 1% personal respect for Arthur finally becoming a hurricane after 30 years (like Erick last year in the EPac). *Bertha - 2% - Another relatively minor storm. It killed a few people in the Lesser Antilles, but otherwise most of the effects were beneficial, knowing they were in a drought at the time. *Cristobal - 5% - 7 deaths across the upper lessers in the early stage of its life, but damage was very limited and it's coming back again in 2019. *Dolly - 3% - Minor flooding in Mexico, but it wasn't anything compared to the barrage of storms they had last year. *Edouard - 2% - Caused two deaths from Maryland due to strong rip currents and surf, but caused no damage on land. *Fay - 2% - Soaked Bermuda as a strong TS, but overall impacts weren't too severe. Guess I'll have to save the *faycepalm* pun for 2020 lol. *Gonzalo - 30% - Killed some people in the Lessers and brought some hefty impacts to Bermuda and some rain to Newfoundland, but not only was this not as severe as what they've seen before (Luis, Fabian, Igor, ect), it wasn't severe in general. Assuming nothing else significant develops through the rest of the season, this is most likely the 2014 AHS's most notable storm. I don't really expect Gonzalo to be retired, but it isn't completely out of the question either. *Hanna - 4% - Gets credit for being persistent, but it still caused only minor impacts, not that bad even by their standards. All in all, every storm thus far is worthy of some sort of percent, but nothing is actually getting retired, unless we get a notable storm in the Caribbean in October. Ryan1000 21:33, September 28, 2014 (UTC) There's nothing worth retiring so far, so... *All - 0% --Isaac829 21:37, September 28, 2014 (UTC) We have a good number of storms for me to post my predictions: #''Arthur - 30% - A huge scare for the East Coast for Independence Day activities. Fortunately, aside for some coastal erosion, North Carolina evicted the worst of the hurricane. In New England, aside from a flash flood emergency in New Bedford, there was nothing abnormal as well. However, power outages in Nova Scotia were reported to be the worst since Juan, and New Brunswick stated it could be years for some regions to recover. Heck, what happened in the Annapolis Valley was compared to Katrina, and as a matter of fact, the percentage of people losing power in Nova Scotia from Arthur is greater than that of those in Louisiana from Katrina. It was a pain for Nova Scotia to restore the power grid, and then lose a lot of their apple orchards because of a bacterial infection. For those of you who are saying a fatality and $21.4 million won't cut it, look http://i.cbc.ca/1.2697767.1404600304!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/image.jpg at this.'' #Bertha - 5% - Widespread power outages occurred in the Caribbean, but only four deaths occurred (two were off the U.S. East Coast), and despite disrupting political elections in the Virgin Islands, was relatively minor. Sure, England was drowned under Bertha's rain and a tornado outbreak affected Central Europe, but Europe seldom retires hurricane names. #Cristobal - 5% - I am sorry for the losses due to the heavy rains from Cristobal, but that is really all I can speak of. #Dolly - 1% - Dolly isolated several communities and caused a fatality, and Mexico is not going to consider this for retirement at all. #Edouard - 1% - Eddie became a major hurricane and large swells did cause two drownings across the U.S. East Coast; that's all. We'll see you again in 2020, sir. #Fay - 5% - With fame comes trouble. Luckily, Fay caused no fatalities. Unfortunately, she brought hurricane-force gusts to most of Bermuda, knocked out power to roughly three-quarters of its citizens, and blew off the roof of the airport. Otherwise, $3.8 million (2014 USD) in losses is very little compared to Gonzalo or Fabian, so I'll say no to her. #''Gonzalo - 40% - I understand the Lesser Antilles and Newfoundland effects were marginal, but not so much Bermuda. Gusts of up to 144 mph and numerous important structures, including the Royal Navy Dockyard and King Edward VII Memorial Hospital, suffered quite the damage. What really will cut it is not the lack of fatalities, but the damage losses of $200 to 400 million, which are comparable to Fabian . That means Gonzalo really deserves retirement, not to mention what happened in Europe. So, yes, I hope Gonzalo gets retired. Never mind, Gonzalo's damage toll is just half of Fabian's after accounting for inflation. Not really that severe, it seemed.'' #Hanna - 1% - Otherwise known as Trudy - Part II, Hanna took a very erratic track and affected a number of Latin American regions. However, since we have no specific impact statistics, retirement is out of the question for now. We could make it out of 2014 with no retirees, but both Arthur and Gonzalo are noteworthy for their impacts. AndrewTalk To Me 03:01, October 25, 2014 (UTC) Post-season changes Well. I would have expected the NHC to have more than just one TCR completed for this year's AHS given the low activity, but I guess a busy EPAC season has been keeping them preoccupied. Anyway, we finally have an Atlantic TCR, and it's for Tropical Depression Two. No significant changes reported. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:50, October 3, 2014 (UTC) : I guess...we have 5 storms left in ATL for them to complete. Like I said before on the EPac post-season section, If we don't get anything for the next 10 days, I'll bend the December 1st rule again this year and open the TCR betting pool around the 15th of October. We'll probably have all of the Atlantic TCR's finished before December this year. Though the EPac will take a while to complete. Ryan1000 12:35, October 4, 2014 (UTC) ::: Hanna's finished. Ryan1000 14:38, December 17, 2014 (UTC) ::::You guys can view best track changes trough the NHC GIS page. They will often have that completed before they get around to making the TCR. Supportstorm (talk) 17:10, December 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::Bertha and Fay are out as well. Fay was a hurricane when it hit Bermuda, and its peak was adjusted upward to 70 kts/983 mbar. No significant change with Bertha. Finally we are making some progress with the Atlantic TCRs... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 05:11, December 19, 2014 (UTC)